U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

आज
उद्या
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 170446 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 170445 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly over 
northern Florida later today. A thunderstorm or two may also occur 
over the Great Basin region. 


... 


Upper pattern will undergo little change today with a broad synoptic 
trough moving through the eastern states along with a cutoff low 
over the great basing region. The best chance for a few 
thunderstorms inland is expected across northern Florida later today in 
vicinity of a southward-advancing cold front. Other more sparse 
lightning activity might occur with convection developing in 
association with the upper low circulation over the Great Basin. 
Other showers will occur over portions of Maine in association with 
vorticity maxima moving through the upper low circulation, and where 
weak instability will be supported by diabatic heating beneath cold 
air aloft. However, this activity will probably remain too shallow 
for lightning production. 


.Dial.. 10/17/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 162228 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 162228 
ncz000-scz000-170100- 


Mesoscale discussion 1587 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0528 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 


Areas affected...portions of NC/SC 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 162228z - 170100z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...strong/gusty winds may occur on an isolated basis through 
the evening. Watch issuance is unlikely. 


Discussion...glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated 
with an upper-level jet over the mid-Atlantic/northeast coupled with 
modest low-level convergence along a stalled front should support 
isolated to scattered convective development through the evening 
across the southern half of NC and parts of SC. This generally 
east-west oriented front will likely serve as a focus for 
thunderstorms, with a couple attempts at convective initiation noted 
recently near gsp in upstate SC. A meso-low noted on 22z surface 
analysis near Fay may also subtly enhance low-level convergence 
along the front in southern NC. 


Some cloud breaks to the south of the front have contributed to 
temperatures in the low 80s at 2228z. A moist-level airmass is also 
present across the warm sector, with dewpoints generally in the 
upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating and plentiful moisture are 
supporting MLCAPE around 250-1000 j/kg, with poor mid-level lapse 
rates limiting even greater destabilization. 40-50+ kt of 
west-southwesterly mid-level flow is present across much of the 
Carolinas, and a strengthening wind profile with height is 
contributing to around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Mid-level 
rotation within thunderstorm updrafts will likely occur given this 
degree of shear, and a couple transient supercells cannot be ruled 
out. A small line segment or thunderstorm cluster will probably 
consolidate along the front as it moves eastward through the 
evening. 


Even with nocturnal cooling commencing soon, already steepened 
low-level lapse rates should encourage efficient momentum Transfer 
of convective downdrafts to the surface. Isolated strong/gusty winds 
primarily capable of tree damage appear to be the main severe 
threat, but very isolated hail may also occur. Regardless, the 
thermodynamic environment will remain quite marginal, and watch 
issuance is unlikely at this time. 


.Gleason/Edwards.. 10/16/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...mhx...rah...ilm...cae...gsp... 


Latitude...Lon 34358191 34878185 35328123 35558022 35557834 35157592 
34857618 34577645 34587693 34367746 34007779 33817793 
33837819 33767854 33437895 34358191