- आज
- उद्या
- Day Three
000
acus01 kwns 160521
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 160520
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019
Valid 161200z - 171200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...
thunder potential will be mostly confined to the Pacific coast
region from western Oregon to central California.
..Pacific coast...
Weak large-scale forcing for ascent will be noted along the Pacific
coast through early afternoon within a broader cyclonic flow-regime
across the western US. Two distinct disturbances will dig southeast
toward northern California in the wake of early-day short-wave ridging which
could aid convective threat along the coast. Latest guidance
suggests thermal profiles will cool within northwesterly flow which
will allow lapse rates to steepen as 500mb temperatures drop below
-30c. While buoyancy will remain weak, forecast soundings suggest
100-200 j/kg MUCAPE will be adequate for convection to penetrate
levels necessary for lightning within the strongest updrafts. For
these reasons 10% thunder line will be maintained from the or coast
into portions of central California.
.Darrow/squitieri.. 02/16/2019
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 141850
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 141850
caz000-142045-
Mesoscale discussion 0104
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019
Areas affected...central California - particularly within the San
Joaquin Valley
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 141850z - 142045z
Probability of watch issuance...5 percent
Summary...isolated/briefly severe convection may occur through the
afternoon across the discussion area. A ww issuance is currently
not anticipated.
Discussion...a band of relatively persistent convection has
developed across portions of Calaveras and Tuolumne counties in
California over the past hour. Within the pre-convective
environment, sunshine has allowed for surface warming, with 60s f
surface temperatures and mid 50s f dewpoints boosting MUCAPE values
into the 500 j/kg range. Additionally, terrain-related backing of
low-level flow beneath strong southwesterly mid-level winds aloft
have boosted 0-3 km srh values to around 225 m2/s2 (based on latest
VAD data at hnx). The cape/shear combination suggests some
potential for convection in the discussion area to briefly rotate,
which may result in a very isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps a brief tornado through at least 00z. This threat will be
too localized/marginal for a ww issuance, although trends will
continue to be monitored throughout the afternoon.
.Cook/Hart.. 02/14/2019
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...hnx...sto...
Latitude...Lon 37932104 38282090 38532041 38251990 37511934 37011918
36891908 36511916 36281936 36241979 36412026 36832081
37642108 37932104