U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 160522 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1122 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
the risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. 
Sunday through Sunday night. 


... 
Models continue to indicate that large-scale ridging and troughing, 
evolving within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern 
Pacific into western North America, will take on an increasingly 
positive-tilt orientation through this period. Short wave 
developments within this regime appear a little more uncertain, but 
at least one significant perturbation is forecast to dig into the 
base of the larger-scale troughing, across California, before 
turning eastward across the southern Great Basin and southwest by 
12z Monday. 


At the same time, downstream short wave ridging may build into 
portions of the southeast, to the north of an increasingly prominent 
subtropical high becoming centered over the Bahamas and Caribbean 
vicinity. And a weak lower/mid tropospheric cyclone, initially over 
the middle/lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valley region, is 
forecast to undergo shearing and deformation while accelerating 
northeastward within an increasingly confluent regime to the north 
of the Ohio River. 


In the wake of the lead perturbation, an initially quasi-stationary 
frontal zone may return southward through much of the remainder of 
the Gulf Coast states, and southeast of the southern Appalachians. 
As it does, a southerly return flow appears likely to persist and 
continue to moisten above the shallower leading edge of the cold 
air. This may contribute to sufficient elevated destabilization to 
support scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Sunday night, if not 
earlier. Highest probabilities for thunderstorms still appear in a 
corridor east-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through the 
southern Appalachians vicinity, near the northwestern periphery of 
the mid-level subtropical ridging. 


Otherwise, weak destabilization beneath very cold mid-level air is 
again possible Sunday near the central California coast, and could 
provide support for isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorms. 
Potential for destabilization supportive of convection capable of 
producing lightning remains more unclear inland of the coast, into 
the lower Colorado valley and southern Great Basin. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Kerr.. 02/16/2019 


$$