Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 160600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/160600z-170600zfeb2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/160151zfeb2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 92w) has persisted near 5.4n
166.6e, approximately 212 nm east of Kosrae. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection over a fully-
obscured low level circulation (llc). A 160244z amsr2 gw1 89ghz
microwave image and a 151012z metop-a ascat pass depicts a very
weak, elongated llc. 92w is currently in a favorable environment
with good poleward and westward outflow, low (5 to 10 knot) vertical
wind shear, and very warm (30 to 32 celsius) sea surface
temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that 92w will be
almost quasi-stationary before beginning to track westward and
gradually intensifying. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 160000z, tropical cyclone 15p (oma) was located near
15.5s 163.9e, approximately 285 nm west- northwest of Port Vila,
Vanuatu, and had tracked west-southwestward at 04 knots over the
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 70
knots gusting to 85 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 160300) for
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
Nnnn

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